Will Kindle 2 Be The Next Overnight Sensation This Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

The Myth of the Overnight Sensation

Like weight loss, it takes time and hard work for most products and services to achieve critical mass, yet time and time again many products are perceived and billed as overnight sensations.  If history is any indication, the overnight sensation is generally a myth.    For instance, e-readers are being touted as one of the top “hot” holiday items for this holiday. Amazon.com states on its website that its Kindle e-reader device is “the #1 Bestselling, #1 Most Wished For, and #1 Most Gifted Item on Amazon” meaning Amazon expects to sell quite a lot of these devices this Black Friday and Cyber Monday.  The Kindle is also the second product featured in CNET’s  2009 Ultimate Holiday Tech Guide and yet Kindle, in its initial incarnation, debuted over two years ago on November 17, 2007.    This isn’t to say that Kindle and its like aren’t a great holiday gift; it just isn’t the “overnight” sensation that many will claim it to be as the device is on track to sell over 1 million units this year.

Twitter launched in 2006 and became a media darling in 2009.  Wikipedia’s (another overnight sensation) entry on Twitter references 142 media articles, all penned in 2009 and everyone from Barack Obama and CNN to you next door neighbor were not only tweeting but also talking about how they were tweeting. Quantcast, a measurement company, has estimated (Twitter does not disclose usage numbers) that roughly 30 million people were tweeting in  July 2009, quite a leap from  Twitter’s traffic in July 2007 and 2008 for which estimates were merely a blip on the radar screen. Again, not quite the overnight sensation it appears to be.

Then there’s one of the most recognizable consumer electronics products: Apple’s iPod. The first iPod launched in October 2001 and sold a whopping 125,000 units by the end of December 2001. It wasn’t until 2004 – three years later- that the iPod dominated digital music player sales and you saw more than two million consumers were walking around with those now-familiar white ear buds in their ears, bobbing their heads to their favorite tunes.  By April 9, 2007 Apple announced that it had sold the 100 millionth iPod.  That’s a lot of iPods, surely enough to circle the earth several times over.

iPod Sales Chart

So next time you hear about an overnight sensation, keep in mind that it took a not only a product or service that did something new and different, but a whole lot of hard work by many people over a sustained period of time to create that “instant” hit.

Taming the Wild West: How the iPhone App Store Should – and Probably Will – Change

Faux App Store Walmart Logo

The iPhone has been the biggest boon for independent game and app developers in recent memory, but the surge of devs looking to cash in has overwhelmed the current format of the App Store as an e-commerce platform.

It’s a good problem to have, certainly, but it means there’s a huge opportunity for Apple to push the needle even more by improving the way products are presented to consumers on the platform.

Apple’s brick and mortar stores are hip, sparse environments with big aisles and a dearth of shelf space – they can pull this off because they have only a few product lines, and they’ve achieved premium brand positioning akin to high-end fashion and jewelry retailers.

But if Apple’s retail outlets are Prada and Tiffany’s, then the App Store is Walmart.

There are currently upwards of 115,000 third-party apps available for iPhone owners to choose from, and like it or not, most of these aren’t exactly premium products. There’s a glut of amazing software out there, but most of it’s small, simple and cheap.

And while the variety and value found in the App Store is similar, the presentation of products is nothing like Walmart. It isn’t even like Amazon or other big online retailers. To service those 115,000 products, the App Store actually has surprisingly limited options for product visibility.

The App Store’s shelf space consists of just a few sought after promotional slots, determined by Apple’s editorial team (presumably a group of cloaked and hooded masterminds, convening in an ominous-looking cave somewhere deep beneath Cupertino). Besides the limited promotional space, product presentation is nothing more than a few lists of top-selling products.

And for the majority of that shelf space – even apps lucky enough to show up in the ‘What’s Hot’ spotlight and similar sections – only the app title and icon are visible. There’s a wealth of information that could be added – an app’s rating, a brief description, rotating screenshots, etc. – by slightly increasing the real estate given to promoted apps.

Product presentation in a big-box retailer is carefully controlled. Shelf space is rationed out to specific products based on an overwhelming amount of research (not to mention plenty of deals and partnerships), and endcap promotions are constantly cycling. Similarly, online retail behemoths like Amazon and Newegg have a constant stream of promotions and complete control over the placement of products.

Online retailers are getting even better about customizing product placement based on each user’s viewing and purchasing habits. Apple has dipped its toes in the water with the ‘Genius’ feature, but there’s surely an opportunity to deliver a more personalized user experience for every iPhone owner. If the App Store was as good at suggesting products as Amazon and Netflix, it would mean more overall app sales (good for Apple) – and probably far less of a top-heavy market (good for developers).

There are signs Apple is learning lessons from online and offline retailers. Seasonal and demographically targeted banner promotions (“Apps for Toddlers”) inside the App Store have become more commonplace, and the ‘Apps for iPhone’ promotion on Apple.com recently saw a revamp.

Apple is undoubtedly cognizant of the App Store’s deficiencies – major changes could be just around the corner. Whatever these changes end up being, they could mean a whole new game for iPhone app marketing. Developers need to stay on their toes, as those who are able to adjust when the landscape shifts will be ahead of the game.